How Do You Read A Dental Market?

How many dentists is too many? What dentist-to-population ratios really tell you

Every doctor scouting a location eventually does the drive-by count: one, two, five, eight practices inside a couple of miles. And every doctor draws the same conclusion — this market is full — usually about a market that isn’t, while falling for one that quietly is.

Raw competitor counts are the astrology of site selection: they feel meaningful and predict almost nothing by themselves. Kevin Klingshirn, Chief Revenue Officer of Dentagraphics, which has spent ten years doing dental market research in all 50 states, and when he joined us on the Dentelligentsia podcast he laid out what the numbers actually mean. Here’s the working math.

The ratios, with their fine print

The screening benchmark: a minimum of 2,000 residents per practice, with 3,000-to-1 the more conservative target. A competitive market runs 1,200 to 1,500 per practice. But note Klingshirn’s own caveat: “I’d never tell somebody to walk away purely because it’s competitive — just be aware.” The ratio is a flag, not a verdict.

Geography scales by practice type: general dentistry is convenience-based, so a roughly three-mile radius captures a GP’s real trade area, while “people will travel three times as far for an endodontist” — specialists get five-plus miles. And specialists need a second ratio entirely: the referral base. “North of 30 GPs for every specialist nearby is a positive. Twelve is a lack of a referral base.” One more modern wrinkle: the corporate multi-specialty office with its own in-house GP isn’t a referral source you can count.

Density is your shock absorber

Here’s the concept the drive-by count misses completely: the same competitor count means different things at different population densities. Klingshirn’s example: “Ten thousand people and three practices looks fine — until practices four, five, and six move in.” In a thin market, each new competitor takes a large bite of a small pie. In a dense one, the same arrival barely registers. Density is what lets a market absorb competition — which is why a busy suburban corridor with eight practices can be a better bet than a small town with three.

Read the character of the competition, not just the count

Klingshirn’s most useful idea has no number attached. “Look at the character of the competition. In a mature market, a lot of the practice owners are 60, 65-plus — no website, hard to tell if they’re even open. That’s very different from Austin or Raleigh, where everyone’s young and aggressive.”

Twelve competitors near retirement, invisible online, not accepting new patients enthusiastically — that’s not saturation; that’s a market about to hand over its patients, possibly through practice sales. Twelve aggressive young owners with marketing budgets is a genuinely different animal at the same headcount. The count matches; the opportunity doesn’t. (This assessment is only as good as its data, which is why Dentagraphics hand-verifies every practice in its national database annually — “not very interesting,” Klingshirn admits, “but probably the most important thing we’ve built.”)

Population isn’t demand

The last trap is assuming people equal patients. Klingshirn’s cautionary profile: “Median income $115,000 looks great on paper — but if the median age is 32 and they’re renters, these are people who don’t go to the dentist, and they move to the suburbs when the first kid comes.” High income, low dental demand, high churn — a demand trap wearing great demographics. True demand lives in homeownership, family formation, age mix, and stability, not in a single income figure.

So the full test is three-factor: competition (count, ratio, and character), density, and true demand — coming together, as he puts it, into “an underserved area that’s also practical and matches the doctor’s practice strategy. You might not hit a home run on all three fronts — but it’s got to come together across them.”

Notice the word practical. A submarket that passes every test but contains no available real estate is a research finding, not a site. Turning the winning circle on the map into an actual address — including the buildings that aren’t listed anywhere — is where the market research hands off to us, and we work that handoff with data partners like Dentagraphics rather than treating either half as optional.

Hear the full conversation with Kevin Klingshirn of Dentagraphics on the Dentelligentsia podcast — the Start·Buy·Grow software, patient-plotting for second locations, and his parenthood-grade advice for associates who are waiting to feel ready.

Found your submarket? We’ll find what’s actually available inside it. Tenants and buyers only — talk to us.

For more on our interview with Kevin Klingshirn, check out our article, “How Do You Read A Dental Market? Ratios, Density, and The Character of Competition.”

And follow Kevin Klingshirn on Linked In or check out the Dentagraphics website.